Rigorous owner-investor analysis: audited filings, earnings power value, and economic moats

Curve profile & macro regime. Not enough live readings to classify the curve shape. The 10Y sits at —, the 10Y–2Y spread at — and the 10Y–3M spread at —. Over the past year the bill sector moved — while the long end moved — — a mixed pattern. Comparing the 10Y to the Fed Funds target rate reveals structural normalization: while the central bank anchors the short end, long-end market rates operate on real supply-and-demand dynamics, fiscal deficits, and debt issuance rather than monetary policy alone.

Three months — the policy anchor. The 3M bill at — is the cleanest market proxy for where the Fed funds target sits today; it holds close to the prevailing policy range until the market gains confidence in the next decision. This short-end rate represents the ultimate risk-free hurdle rate—the baseline yield against which every corporate investment and equity purchase must be measured.

Six months — the forward policy read. The 6M at — prices the expected average policy rate over the next two quarters, while the 1Y at — extends that horizon to four. Comparing those points with the 3M reveals whether investors expect a pivot, a pause, or renewed tightening. Not enough front-end readings to judge near-term policy expectations.

Ten years — the risk-free anchor & S&P 500 implications. The 10Y at — is the baseline discount rate for equities, corporate bonds, and mortgages, pricing the expected average Fed funds rate over the next decade plus an inflation-risk premium. Interest rates act on asset prices like gravity acts on matter: when the 10Y rises to ~—, it exerts heavy financial gravity on broad market equities. Guaranteed ~— risk-free Treasury returns severely compress the ERP (Earnings Yield minus 10Y Yield), destroying the traditional "Margin of Safety" unless market P/E multiples compress or corporate earnings surge. A flat 10Y–2Y spread leaves little extra compensation for taking duration or credit risk, so equity investors must rely on earnings growth rather than multiple expansion to generate returns. A mixed 10Y ensures that even if short-term Fed rates drop, S&P 500 mid-cap and high-leverage constituents face rising long-term refinancing costs, eroding profit margins for companies with heavy debt loads.

Thirty years — the term premium & Nasdaq / tech implications. Not enough long-end readings to judge term premium or duration risk. With the long end offering little extra compensation over the 10Y, growth-stock valuations depend more on the absolute level of rates than on term premium. High long-term discount rates still compress Net Present Value for distant cash flows, but cash-rich mega-cap tech giants can use their balance-sheet strength to offset some of that headwind while capital-intensive growth names remain exposed. Nasdaq 100 and long-duration growth equities are therefore the most rate-sensitive segment of the market.

One year ago versus today. The structural story is un-inversion rather than a parallel rally. Short maturities (1M–6M) have eased as policy normalised — the 3M moved from — to — — while the long end has shifted the other way, with the 10Y at — versus — and the 30Y at — versus —. That combination is bear steepening: expanding fiscal deficits and heavy coupon issuance, plus a rebuilt term premium for holding duration, keep long rates elevated even as cash rates fall.

Three years ago. The purple curve captures the peak of the hiking cycle: front-end yields repriced violently as policy turned restrictive, pushing the 3M to — against a 10Y of — and producing a deep inversion — historically the market's clearest recession signal.

Five years ago. The grey curve is the post-pandemic baseline: policy rates pinned near zero under ZIRP with active large-scale asset purchases suppressing term premium, so the whole front end printed near — and even the 30Y only reached —.